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[FishSlayer]

Driest winter on record is feared
With rain at 25% of normal, weakening El Nio, winds fuel concern.
By Dana Bartholomew, Staff Writer Long Beach Press Telegram

With rainfall just 25 percent of normal and El Nio unexpectedly weakening this month, weather forecasters say Southern California may face its driest winter on record.
Howling winds have pushed into the traditional wet season, wicking moisture from hillside brush to critically dry levels and raising fears of a disastrous fire season.
Despite recent frigid temperatures, the National Weather Service has maintained its red-flag warnings, Canadian SuperScoopers have prolonged their stay and Los Angeles area fire departments remain on heightened alert.
"El Nio was our last hope," said Bill Patzert, climatologist for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Ca ada-Flintridge.
"The deeper and drier we get into this, the weakening El Nio enhances the probability for one of the driest winters in history."
It's a weather pattern that has confounded forecasters, frustrated water departments, worried firefighters and inflamed residents' allergies.
For months, it's been the weather repeat of "Groundhog Day."
Storms are predicted. Clouds move in. Clouds move out. Gutters remain mostly dry. And then the dry northeast winds - offshore Santa Anas - blow
for days.
The arctic storm that arrived last Friday brought nary a drop of rain, but ushered in 40 mph gusts that toppled trees, blew off doors and sent residents scurrying for their heaviest coats.
Since July, 1.31 inches of rain has fallen on downtown Los Angeles - 25 percent of normal. By this time during the record dry weather season of 2001-2002, which got a total 4.42 inches, rainfall was 29 percent of the year-to-date normal.
The result: brush so dry that weather forecasters have extended their fire weather desk two months past the end of the normal fire season.
Red-flag warnings prompted by critically dry brush were expected to continue late Tuesday with winds up to 60 mph and humidity levels of 10 to 20 percent.
The northeast winds are expected to ebb by today as high pressure over the Great Basin loses its grip - for now - on the Southland.
"Every drop we've gotten recently has been offset by the powerful winds that follow," said Jamie Meier, an NWS meteorologist based in Oxnard. "The fuel moisture hasn't been allowed to recover."
Early last month, Santa Ana winds clocked at 75 mph fanned the Shekell fire that gutted five homes and blackened 13,700 acres near Moorpark.
Days later, a brushfire threatened homes in Simi Valley.
This was followed by last week's Malibu fire. Fueled by unseasonably hot Santa Ana winds, it torched 21 acres and five beachfront estates, including the home of actress Suzanne Somers.
As of Jan. 12, average brush levels for chamise, sage and ceanothus hovered just past 70 percent across the county. Normal January fuel moisture is 120 percent.
As a result, the fire season which normally ends in late November has been pushed back indefinitely, officials say. The National Weather Service will not close its Oxnard fire weather desk until there's a soaking rain of 4 to 5 inches.
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climatic Prediction Center downgraded its assessment to a weaker El Nio.
"This El Nio has definitely been El No Show," Patzert said. "We're done here - we didn't get anything out of this last storm.
"And there's nothin' on the horizon."

[Beresford13861]

wow, now this is gona be strange, perhaps not our life but our kids'

[cst]

and next year it's going to rain a lot :-/

[ehano44]

hope summer time is like last years. Let the dodo's retrun!!!